# York might be canceled



## ed&bingo (Sep 20, 2015)

There is a strong possibility that York could get canceled. I sure hope not. This is not a rumor.


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## Lee Willis (Jan 1, 2014)

I hope its true. I certainly would not go, out of that ubiquitous "abundance of caution" we always hear about. The City of Austin cancelled South By Southwest. The Baharain Formula 1 Grand Prix will be run on March 22nd, but there will be no fans in the stands for the race: everyone will have to watch it from home. DOE and other government agencies are canclling all meetings, etc. 
The alarming thing about the Covid-19 virus is not howmany people it kills - apparently the mortality rate is about that of a bad flu - but the ease/undetected nature of how commmunicable it is and how fast it spreads among people who at first show no syptoms. Three cases here in the Carolinas convinced me, when I read the details of how each got it/spread it to others, that a "no travel, no where" mind-set is the only way . . .

Besides, in a world with Pat's Trains and e-bay, I hardly need anything else to get all the trains I want, and I'd rather visit with me friends here on the forum and via e-mail than risk their (and me) getting sick by actually getting together.


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## Riggzie (Dec 24, 2019)

ive never been to a train show and only got into this since December... and with this new panic from people... guess it will be a while longer. A guy I work with just said he isnt coming to work and will work from home from here on out. He is my boss, but he only told someone else. Once it is said, somehow, I will go that route too. 
He lives in Cherry Hill and 2 cases just popped up there. I have to drive by Cherry Hill on my 65 mile commute, and a work from home attitude would ROCK!!!!!

I seldom get sick, dont use hand sanitizer and have a pretty good immune system to which they say this virus attacks the weaker so hopefully I will be ok... Yes I do wash my hands after bathroom and the sort... but I will wrench on my 1978 chevy squarebody covered in mud/grease and grime and wont hesitate to eat my sandwich wihtout washing my hands... all that grease and grime goes well with the sandwich, washed down with a few cold ones!

I heard a basketball championship went on but had 0 fans as well... I dont watch basketball so just heard about it...

but keep us posted on if they cancel it or not.


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## Severn (May 13, 2016)

Right now the chances of so called "community spread" are low ... yet we appear to have it occurring at least a little bit. And so we've put in place some minimal mitigating responses and we'll see if that does anything to the new case load. If not, we either have a choice -- do nothing and let it runs it course, whatever that may be -- or put in place ever more draconian measures similar to say China or South Korea to get the case load down -- which they have both done.

You can see it here on the charts here -- look at the graphs and china and south korea appear to be past "peak" for them. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

ed&bingo said:


> There is a strong possibility that York could get canceled. I sure hope not. This is not a rumor.


It's not a rumor because you said it wasn't? Do you have an actual verified source for this "fact"?


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

From someone that should know...

*From the President, Dan Danielson*:

The Eastern Division Call Center is receiving calls from our members expressing concerns over the Corona Virus and asking the question: will we cancel the April York Train Show. Please be assured I am monitoring the status of the virus, along with the York County Convention Visitors Bureau and the York Expo Fairgrounds.

The Board of Directors will meet and make a decision no later than the first week of April and the decision will be posted on the website & on Facebook. I will update everyone at that time.

I spoke with my Primary Care Physician regarding the virus and he indicated it is similar to the flu making it primarily a cold weather virus. As we look forward to spring, I'm looking forward to April warming up by the 24th.

We want to reassure all members we are monitoring the situation very closely.


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## Riggzie (Dec 24, 2019)

gunrunnerjohn said:


> From someone that should know...
> 
> *From the President, Dan Danielson*:
> 
> ...



Thx.. i dont follow any news, etc.. so 
good to know its a ... COLD Weather item... 74 yesterday!!!! gonna be warm today, albeit, not as warm...


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## seayakbill (Jan 16, 2016)

*Railfest 2020 still on this weekend near Cleveland*

Railfest 2020 near Cleveland is still on as of Tues morning. Possible that it could change since 3 folks in Northern Ohio are confirmed with the virus. First confirmed cases in Ohio.

Bill


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## ed&bingo (Sep 20, 2015)

Gunrunnerjohn, the answer is YES


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## Severn (May 13, 2016)

No, we don't know that it's "seasonal" yet. I'm hopeful of course but it's not a given fact.


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## CTValleyRR (Jul 26, 2014)

Riggzie said:


> Thx.. i dont follow any news, etc.. so
> good to know its a ... COLD Weather item... 74 yesterday!!!! gonna be warm today, albeit, not as warm...


This is at best a theory based on the behavior of OTHER viruses, and at worst wishful thinking which has no basis in fact. I have seen NO authoritative medical source to suggest that this is accurate.

I have read the NIH discussion on the subject, which says uncategorically that science does not know why some viruses attenuate with warmer weather (it's not the heat: a 98 degree day with 80% humidity replicates conditions in a human host very well)  One theory is tha longer days (more UV light, which DOES kill the virus) and people spending more time outdoors, thereby reducing the time spent in crowded, confined spaces which are conducive to virus transmission, is the reason. COvid-19 seems to be too communicable for this to have much effect.


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## CTValleyRR (Jul 26, 2014)

Riggzie said:


> I seldom get sick, dont use hand sanitizer and have a pretty good immune system to which they say this virus attacks the weaker so hopefully I will be ok...


The virus attacks everyone equally if you are exposed to it. Those with weaker immune systems have more chance of their body being overwhelmed by the virus before the immune system can mount an effective defense.

Having a good immune system means you are more likely to get a mild case, or to fight it off without showing symptoms, not that you won't contract the disease. Keep your immune system in top shape by eating right, exercising, getting enough sleep, and not smoking.


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

ed&bingo said:


> Gunrunnerjohn, the answer is YES


So it is.


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## J.Albert1949 (Feb 3, 2018)

A j.albert completely _off-the-wall _prediction:

Within 30 days, we're going to see almost all publicly-scheduled large gatherings _everywhere_ cancelled or postponed...


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## Severn (May 13, 2016)

So what i read is if we are experiencing exponential growth in infections which means doubling of infected every 5-8 days give or take, then you are probably right.

On the other hand, if by some combination of luck (for example seasonal effects) and our own actions (for example, testing/quarantining) -- we level out to linear or even better.

maybe not.

Unfortunately the 2 countries that to me appear to have done the best there are china and s.korea which undertook massive interventionist policies.

then again to be fair they saw the exponential growth and had 1000s of cases on their hands in a short time.


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## daschnoz (Dec 12, 2016)

Severn said:


> {Snip}
> Unfortunately the 2 countries that to me appear to have done the best there are china and s.korea which undertook massive interventionist policies.
> 
> then again to be fair they saw the exponential growth and had 1000s of cases on their hands in a short time.


The USA will never be able to have the same response as China. I see a declaration of martial law anywhere in the USA firmly in the "fart in church" column.


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

You beat me to that, no way we're going to get away with the draconian measures that were taken in those examples. China can kill 100's of people in a demonstration and never miss a beat, they have a totally different power structure there.


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## seayakbill (Jan 16, 2016)

*Is April York in jeopardy*

The way every large indoor event is being cancelled to spectators the last few days it would seem that April York could also be doomed. Especially since a very large percentage of attendees are in the potential high risk category.

Bill


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## Norton (Nov 5, 2015)

I would say the odds are likely it will close. They just closed all the state universities in New York as well as many of the large private universities here. Closures are accelerating.

Pete


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## Juniata Guy (Nov 5, 2015)

I suspect it will be toast.

Curt


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## ogaugeguy (Feb 3, 2012)

I think the meet has a high probability of being cancelled. If the number of cases in Pennsylvania dramatically increase then it's very likely that the governor will follow the lead of other governors who've already declared a ban on large gatherings in their states and do likewise in Pennsylvania.
If that does happen could "this elimination of Spring York" then become a litmus test for making York a once a year only event in the future?


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## Norton (Nov 5, 2015)

ogaugeguy said:


> I think the meet has a high probability of being cancelled. If the number of cases in Pennsylvania dramatically increase then it's very likely that the governor will follow the lead of other governors who've already declared a ban on large gatherings in their states and do likewise in Pennsylvania.
> If that does happen could "this elimination of Spring York" then become a litmus test for making York a once a year only event in the future?


He was already instrumental in canceling the annual meeting of the American Chemical Society next week in Philadelphia.

Pete


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## Big Ed (Jun 16, 2009)

I wonder how many more threads will will have on this subject?

Close?
Hell yes, EVERYTHING else is closing.

WE ARE ALL DOOMED!


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## Don F (Dec 5, 2015)

Eastern Division sent a message that if the situation warrants, they will cancel the meet. The decision will be made by the first week in April, and ED will continue to monitor.


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## seayakbill (Jan 16, 2016)

Big Ed said:


> I wonder how many more threads will will have on this subject?
> 
> Close?
> Hell yes, EVERYTHING else is closing.
> ...


 Beck is predicting the virus will be on the rise in the USA for the next 7 months then will taper off. So to answer your question, I guess there will be more threads on the consequences of the Cornavirus over the same period.

Bill


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## Severn (May 13, 2016)

I did see a short article on a preliminary paper that suggested it has latitude and temperature preferences and that if you looked at the east-west track, this somewhat lined up -- and therefore perhaps a bit of seasonable effect might come into play. we can hope at least.


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## sjm9911 (Dec 20, 2012)

100 percent it will be cancled. A bunch of older guys and kids at a large gathering. No doubts in my mind. Plan accordingly.


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## Norm (Sep 1, 2010)

No way would I be there. Smart to CANCEL!


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## Lee Willis (Jan 1, 2014)

sjm9911 said:


> 100 percent it will be cancled. A bunch of older guys and kids at a large gathering. No doubts in my mind. Plan accordingly.


Yep Going to happen!


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## MichaelE (Mar 7, 2018)

Many German trains shows are being cancelled too.

On traXS! 2020 in Utrecht, Faszination Modellbahn in Mannheim, and Internationale Spur 0 Tage in Giessen, are just three that I know of so far.


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

Looks like all large gatherings are being closed, so I am afraid that York will suffer the same fate. This would be a smart move I suspect.


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## Shdwdrgn (Dec 23, 2014)

It's funny what a difference a week makes. We just had the Rocky Mountain Train Show last weekend, and I didn't hear anyone talking about any concerns, nobody seemed to be taking any precautions, it was all business-as-usual.


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## Old_Hobo (Feb 20, 2014)

Looks like we've learned a lot in one short week then.....


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## bigdodgetrain (Jun 12, 2015)

i should have copied the york post form the other site.
but in a nut shell.
"the york board will make a decision the first week of april"

kind of late but things might change.


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

I find it hard to imagine that things will get better in two weeks, so I'm pretty much counting on it being cancelled. I can't imagine the wisdom of putting that many old folks in one venue, many with other significant health issues. They are likely to wipe out half the attendees if the Meet goes on.


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## Severn (May 13, 2016)

It appears in some or many instances that just a tiny bit of close contact, and you get a hop from an infected person to the uninfected. For example I read that a child in boston that got an autograph from the hapless nba player who tested positive -- is also now positive. But, there's little real evidence the infection was active at the the time in either... Still, one unknowingly sick vendor, one popular booth... you get the idea.


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## Old_Hobo (Feb 20, 2014)

Train shows scheduled for late March & April in Saskatchewan and Alberta were cancelled this week....as well as a swap meet in April.


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## flyboy2610 (Jan 20, 2010)

The train show scheduled for the first weekend in April in Ralston, Nebraska has been cancelled as well. Lincoln Public Schools have shut down for the next week, the University of Nebraska has cancelled classes for at least two weeks, the Governor has stated that closing all schools for 6-8 weeks is not off the table, toilet paper and hand sanitizer are getting scarce, pigs are staring to fly, there are increasing reports of sightings of little green men and Elvis, etc.
*WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!*


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## Patrick1544 (Apr 27, 2013)

One day at a time...


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## prrfan (Dec 19, 2014)

flyboy2610 said:


> *WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!* <img src="http://www.modeltrainforum.com/images/smilies/eek.gif" border="0" alt="" title="EEK!" class="inlineimg" /><img src="http://www.modeltrainforum.com/images/smilies/eek.gif" border="0" alt="" title="EEK!" class="inlineimg" /><img src="http://www.modeltrainforum.com/images/smilies/eek.gif" border="0" alt="" title="EEK!" class="inlineimg" />


Yes, we are, but hopefully not anytime soon.


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## Frisco Firefly (May 17, 2012)

flyboy2610 said:


> *WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!*


We are all going to die.
We are going to die.
Your going to die.
I'm going to die.
We are all going to die.

BUT NOT TODAY.


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## bigdodgetrain (Jun 12, 2015)

york is cancelled

http://yorkexpo.com/covid-19-policies-and-procedures-at-the-york-expo-center/

if link does not work just go to;
http://yorkexpo.com/

and look under recent posts


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## Juniata Guy (Nov 5, 2015)

Not at all surprised. Looks like the decision was made for the EDTCA board.

Curt


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