# Pre orders, probably not....



## rboatertoo (Aug 5, 2015)

After reading the posts about hobby shops, I started thinking about pre orders. I pre-ordered the 115th because they were almost sold out and I didn't want to miss out. A couple of days ago I checked on ebay and there was 4 listed. I checked a few dealers sites and they all had them available. One even had the price with make me an offer. 

I pre ordered the Lionel NYC Limited and When I saw it at York, I was not impressed enough to spend $1,600 on it so I decided to cancel my pre order. The finish of the cars and that the MTH engine looked a lot more detailed to me. Now the dealer wants to charge me a 15 % re stock fee for cancelling. The same thing with MTH aerotrain. But I had pre ordered that at another dealer and canceled it with no problems. 

I pre ordered the MTH Mono rail and that was suppose to be sold out, but 5 months after the dealers received it, dealers still have them in stock for sale for less than the pre order price.

So why pre order? Maybe I should just wait and see what the finally product is, instead of preordering? Everything I have pre ordered seems to be in stock at dealers.


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

The only "pre-order" I do is for something like Lionel's BTO stuff, but as it turns out, even those are plentiful after the orders are shipped. I think you can still buy a NIB VL-BB in a number of places, for instance.


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## johnfl68 (Feb 1, 2015)

Pre-orders are a way for a company to gauge how popular an item "might" be, and gives them a chance to adjust production quantities based on this. If not many people pre-order, they may keep the order the same, or reduce quantity if possible. If there are many pre-orders, they have the opportunity to increase the quantity in hopes that more will sell.

Like with anything, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.


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## rboatertoo (Aug 5, 2015)

gunrunnerjohn said:


> The only "pre-order" I do is for something like Lionel's BTO stuff, but as it turns out, even those are plentiful after the orders are shipped. I think you can still buy a NIB VL-BB in a number of places, for instance.


I just checked one dealer and he has all four numbers of big boys for sale.


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

Many times pre-orders are used to decide if they'll produce an item at all!


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## Jeff T (Dec 27, 2011)

I know I'm certainly in the minority, but no one has made anything I had to preorder, yet...


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## rboatertoo (Aug 5, 2015)

I just checked ebay and there is now 6, 115th anniversary Berkshires for sale. Considering that it was sold out 6 months ago and only 250 made........ Plus the number in dealers stock.. I guess i didn't need to pre order that one. Just checked 3 dealers and they all had them in stock


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## HarborBelt1970 (Sep 24, 2015)

Just my 2 cents but if there's a model catalogued that I really want I'll pre-order from a reliable main dealer I have dealt with before to get the inevitable discount and the assurance of getting the product when it is actually produced.

The examples given above are mostly of the VL Big Boy but that's the exception IMO. Take a different engine made on the BTO basis namely the Daylight Cab Forward. The only one I can trace in the secondary market now is priced at near enough $2,000, well above the pre-order price, and the ad for it (on fleabay) states that it is rare because most dealers had their allocations cut in half. I had not heard that before but if accurate it reflects why pre-ordering from a major dealer is safer.


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## chipset35 (Sep 4, 2015)

I do not pre-order, as the last time I did for the MTH LIRR C-Liner's was a waiting game of silly proportions, as well as the Lionel Neil Young Texas Special Passenger Set.
Not to mention the fact that they are on ebay and even in some cases still in stock.
In fact, they are on sale....kind of..

Frankly, it has been my experience to find almost anything I want regardless of when it was released on ebay and usually at a better price.
Seems to be the trend with any of my past several pre-orders, and thus..I would rather just wait for it to be released.

No BTO for me, I have most of what I want and/or need, and have no urgency to pre-order or have anything built to order.

About the only product I would "think" about pre-ordering or having BTO, would be a LIRR C-420.
But despite that product being one of the hottest and high demand products ever made by Lionel, they have refused to release it anymore.
Instead, we see one hundred variations of sports teams, candy bar, and greeting card themes trains and locomotives.


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## Guest (Dec 19, 2015)

The connotation of BTO does not mean much to me. We tend to order what we want and *NEED* for the layout, and what happens to the price and availability after release of the product is rather unimportant.

Case in point, since it was mentioned, is the Lionel 115th Anniversary Berkshire. We saw it when it was first announced at the April 2015 York Meet and loved the engine. We decided to take on the project of acquiring a matching set of passenger cars so that the engine would not be a shelf queen. Mission accomplished. So I could give a hoot as to what is now on the market or at what price as I like the engine and it has a purpose. I am glad I ordered one and just because it was a limited production matters little.

Will I order Lionel BTO products in the future, sure. As soon as they take orders for the UP Excursion passenger train, I am in.


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## MOVL (Aug 23, 2015)

I've noticed too that a few dealers have that 115th Berk in stock. Received a couple emails stating so. I wanted to pre-order a Lionel SD60E in First Responders paint and knew MTH was also offering one. In the end I decided to wait until both hit the street and take my chances at finding the one I like best. I'd rather see the as delivered details on these.


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## njrailer93 (Nov 28, 2011)

this was my first year preordering. i preordered because the hobby shop give me a very good deal.


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## Rocky Mountaineer (Sep 19, 2015)

We're a couple of years into Lionel's official BTO program now. And generally speaking, it's business as usual -- as long as larger dealers like Charlie Ro order "extras" beyond what consumers actually pre-order. If/when that practice changes, then things will be more challenging for consumers.

The 115th Anniversary Berk is available just about everywhere we look. Two shops I visit frequently have the locomotive on display... and one has it for sale at roughly 10% off the announced MSRP. And MSRP pretty much served as the minimum advertised price-point for all dealers, which helped play into the limited production hype. Now that the locomotive is widely available and not flying off shelves, expect dealers to move on price.

The locomotive did nothing for me as pictured in the catalog, but in person it's quite eye-catching. The price is what it is, and it's not really something you can rationalize. 

Word on the street is this 115th Anniversary Berk came about as production-filler to meet the minimum production quantity needed to make good on an order snafu between Lionel and Charlie Ro related to black Polar Express Berks last year. So Lionel delivered the 50 or so P/E Berks to Charlie (which are now gone), and the other 250 Berks in the production run became the 115th Anniversary Berk... done up in silver for an extra $1,000.  

Lionel probably could have easily sold another 250 black P/E Berks at regular pricing, and they'd very likely already be sold out at dealers right now given their arrival just weeks before Christmas 2015. Instead, dealers are now left trying to move a gorgeous albeit slightly over-priced locomotive. It was nice enough that I almost bought one. But in the end, I passed on it and purchased an entire chrome-plated Standard Gauge TRAIN (400E locomotive and 5 cars) for a couple of hundred dollars more. It's something I've always had my eye on. So the time and price seemed right. 

As I said earlier though... sometimes there's no "rationalizing" the things we like in this hobby. If it floats your boat, then buy it... and don't look back. Just enjoy it. Life is short. 

But if you're looking for "a deal" on the 115th Anniversary Berk, you should be able to get one for $1800 or less these days... as dealers try to move these things. Of course, some dealers may hold tight to MSRP pricing in hopes that enthusiasts will eventually need to come back to them when the lesser-expensive units disappear from the market. That's just the way it is. 

As for pre-ordering in general? Ya just never know. Every now and then, we'll see even big dealers like Charlie Ro announce that they're "sold out" of a newly released item when they publish their "new products just in" email flyer. I think the BNSF ES44 locomotive that reportedly made the last of this year's shipment (due into stores this week or next with a BUNCH of other big-ticket items) may be one of those "tough to find" goodies right out of the gate.

There's always enough uncertainty in the landscape to keep things interesting! 

David


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## Jeff T (Dec 27, 2011)

Welcome aboard David!!!


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## Rocky Mountaineer (Sep 19, 2015)

Thanks Jeff. Glad to chime in here from time to time!!!

David


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## Guest (Dec 19, 2015)

I was wondering how long it would be before you made the MTF part of your forum activity. So welcome, we are glad you are here. The MTF has a personality all to itself and treats it's members like a family would. I think you will enjoy that part of it.

I know you have mentioned that it would have been nice for Lionel to do a matching set of passenger cars to go with the 115th Anniversary Berkshire. Word may have not reached you. but we did a set. Here is a sample.

View attachment 119225


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## Todd Lopes (Nov 11, 2015)

David, Welcome. Always enjoy your posts about the train market and business. I've found this forum is very drama free. Just good folks talking trains.


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

Todd, you didn't mention that we always delete a few posts for newcomers, just to make them feel at home, right?


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## Rocky Mountaineer (Sep 19, 2015)

Passenger Train Collector said:


> I was wondering how long it would be before you made the MTF part of your forum activity. So welcome, we are glad you are here. ...
> 
> I know you have mentioned that it would have been nice for Lionel to do a matching set of passenger cars to go with the 115th Anniversary Berkshire. Word may have not reached you. but we did a set. Here is a sample.
> 
> ...


Brian, thanks for the welcome! Very nice passenger car for your 115th Anniversary Berk. The entire train will look stunning for sure.

David


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## Rocky Mountaineer (Sep 19, 2015)

gunrunnerjohn said:


> Todd, you didn't mention that we always delete a few posts for newcomers, just to make them feel at home, right?


Say it ain't so, John! You're telling me that threads actually get DELETED on some online forums -- even when folks take their valuable time to contribute content to those threads? Where have I been all these years to have missed experiencing such a silly and childish practice? 

David


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## 86TA355SR (Feb 27, 2015)

Passenger Train Collector said:


> Will I order Lionel BTO products in the future, sure. As soon as they take orders for the UP Excursion passenger train, I am in.


Add me to *that* list! I can't wait for those cars!

Welcome Dave, typically rookies have to earn posting rites but we may let it slide this one time!

Merry Christmas!
Aaron


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## rboatertoo (Aug 5, 2015)

Passenger Train Collector said:


> I was wondering how long it would be before you made the MTF part of your forum activity. So welcome, we are glad you are here. The MTF has a personality all to itself and treats it's members like a family would. I think you will enjoy that part of it.
> 
> I know you have mentioned that it would have been nice for Lionel to do a matching set of passenger cars to go with the 115th Anniversary Berkshire. Word may have not reached you. but we did a set. Here is a sample.
> 
> View attachment 119225


So when are you opening your presents so we can see the complete set????


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## Rocky Mountaineer (Sep 19, 2015)

86TA355SR said:


> ...
> 
> Welcome Dave, typically rookies have to earn posting rites but we may let it slide this one time!
> 
> ...


And to top it off, I see I'm just a lowly hobo here (for now).  How do I get to the "hobo for life" level???

David


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## Guest (Dec 23, 2015)

*"So when are you opening your presents so we can see the complete set????"*

Jim, let's see, that's a tough one. But if Santa is on schedule, less than two days from now.


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

Rocky Mountaineer said:


> How do I get to the "hobo for life" level???
> 
> David


That's a special category.


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## Todd Lopes (Nov 11, 2015)

I, personally, have only pre ordered two items. One when I got back into trains several years ago and another recently. Everything else I've just purchased normally without pre orders. My suggestion has always been if it is something you really want and don't want to miss out, pre order it. Easy. From my experience, the manufacturers rarely meet the delivery dates anyway and you can normally find what you are looking for soon after it was delivered. Believe me, the manufacturers want to sell you a train or related stuff anyway they can, BTO or whatever.

For me, I've never missed out on anything I wanted to buy because I didn't pre order it. 

You have to do what works for you.


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## Ricky Tanner (Sep 19, 2015)

I no longer pre order.Nothing but delays and headaches. Haven't missed out in anything in several years.


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## Rocky Mountaineer (Sep 19, 2015)

Ricky Tanner said:


> ...Nothing but delays and headaches. Haven't missed out in anything in several years.


To a large degree, I think this is a very healthy attitude. But we're admittedly seeing OCCASIONAL instances where BTO products are "sold out" before products hit the market. True... the larger dealers order "extra" quantities beyond their actual customer pre-orders. But even those "extra's" can get spoken for between the BTO order deadline and actual product shipment. I think we're seeing that happen right now with one of Lionel's ES44 locomotives: the BNSF Golden Swoosh ES44... along with some of the boom sound cars, aluminum passenger cars, and heavy Mikado steamers. Lots of the big dealers are "sold out". And if a dealer happens to still have one, the price will shift further away from the pre-order discount toward what is admittedly a very inflated MSRP.  This latest Lionel December "mother lode" shipment probably has the largest number of BTO "sold outs" we've seen to date from a big dealer like Charlie Ro. So perhaps dealers are just ordering smaller numbers of "extra" quantities. Nobody wants to have this stuff sitting in inventory anymore. 

Tough to predict these things... but generally speaking I've yet to be shut out of obtaining a product I really wanted -- even in the BTO era. 

The bigger problem I see looming ahead is escalating prices in general. I've personally reached a point where between what I've spent in recent years and the few items I have on pre-order still to be delivered in 2016, I'm not even intrigued to see what's gonna be announced in the new 2016 catalogs. I am hoping Lionel brings their Vision Line GG-1 in at a reasonable price-point, because I'd like to purchase the Bicentennial model. But I'm not expecting it to be a bargain -- especially given some other new price-points we've seen recently... like that of the FEF-3. So if the Vision Line GG-1 is all that I purchase out of Lionel's 2016 catalogs, I'm perfectly fine with that. 

David


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## chipset35 (Sep 4, 2015)

Rocky Mountaineer said:


> Thanks Jeff. Glad to chime in here from time to time!!!
> 
> David


About time you got here!


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## J. S. Bach (Sep 20, 2015)

gunrunnerjohn said:


> Todd, you didn't mention that we always delete a few posts for newcomers, just to make them feel at home, right?


John, that is not even funny!!:thumbsdown:


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## Mark Boyce (Jul 22, 2015)

I pre-ordered once, knowing it would take a lot longer coming than originally advertised. I don't know if I would again, because lo and behold something came along that I liked even better in the meantime to fill that void. I wouldn't cancel, unless I learned the product wasn't going to be as advertised or if I found myself in the poor house!


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## Rocky Mountaineer (Sep 19, 2015)

J. S. Bach said:


> John, that is not even funny!!:thumbsdown:


Dave,

No problem... John's just giving me a little ribbing 'cause I was one of the most vocal critics of OGR's heavy-handed policies of deleting forum content in a venue where people are invited to create the very content that makes the site so valuable to the members as well as the forum owners who are now selling lots of ad space there _because of the content_.

In the 15 or so years since I joined OGR's forum, they still delete forum content regularly... which I always viewed as being disrespectful to the members who took time to post good content. If it hasn't changed by now, it ain't ever gonna change! 

David


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

J. S. Bach said:


> John, that is not even funny!!:thumbsdown:


Wow, who took a wizz in your corn flakes this morning?  Lighten up, it was a joke aimed at a guy I know can take it. 

Lookout Dave, here it comes! 

Maybe I'll just delete this post to set the mood.


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## Ricky Tanner (Sep 19, 2015)

David!! Good to see you here!


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## josef (Jun 20, 2015)

I would definitely "pre-order" if the manufacturer could guarantee delivery before they lower me. At my age, its gamble to have to wait the periods that have taken to get items to buyers.
Its a ridiculous and callous way to run a business. Come out with catalogs showing items, then years to deliver. This is one aspect of model railroading I've never been able to understand, a product is shown, customer puts down money with promises it will be made at a certain time, then delays after delays accumulate. Yet the modeler continues this practice. 
Personally, I won't ever put money on promises, nor do I, or have I ever put money into "futures" on the stock market.


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## rboatertoo (Aug 5, 2015)

Passenger Train Collector said:


> *"So when are you opening your presents so we can see the complete set????"*
> 
> Jim, let's see, that's a tough one. But if Santa is on schedule, less than two days from now.


I hope you have been good and get the 115th Berkshire instead of a lump of coal!!!!


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## Guest (Dec 23, 2015)

*"I hope you have been good and get the 115th Berkshire instead of a lump of coal!!!!"*

Well, Jim, I sure hope Santa thinks so. However there may be some on another site that would not give me a lump of coal or anything else for that matter.


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## J. S. Bach (Sep 20, 2015)

gunrunnerjohn said:


> Wow, who took a wizz in your corn flakes this morning?  Lighten up, it was a joke aimed at a guy I know can take it.
> 
> Lookout Dave, here it comes!
> 
> Maybe I'll just delete this post to set the mood.


I wish that I could lighten up but my scale tells me otherwise!   The post just made me think of another place where that just could happen. Oh well, back to trains.


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## MattR (Oct 30, 2015)

gunrunnerjohn said:


> Wow, who took a wizz in your corn flakes this morning?  Lighten up, it was a joke aimed at a guy I know can take it.
> 
> Lookout Dave, here it comes!
> 
> Maybe I'll just delete this post to set the mood.


I thought it was hilarious!


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## Guest (Dec 24, 2015)

*"I thought it was hilarious!"*

Me too.


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## rboatertoo (Aug 5, 2015)

Passenger Train Collector said:


> *"I hope you have been good and get the 115th Berkshire instead of a lump of coal!!!!"*
> 
> Well, Jim, I sure hope Santa thinks so. However there may be some on another site that would not give me a lump of coal or anything else for that matter.


That other site has a lot of people that are going to get a lump of coal from Santa!!!!

I still haven't opened mine yet, I am waiting for you to open yours first!!!!


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## Traindiesel (Sep 8, 2015)

Back to the original subject........

Previously I had never pre-ordered anything. I preferred to buy item when I saw them on the shelf of the hobby shop. But that changed when I could not find a Lionel scale Penn Central GG1 after they were delivered, not for less than a kings ransom anyway! 

Since then, I started pre-ordering everything that I thought looked good. But as some have mentioned, items were becoming available when shops would order extras. So now I only pre-order items I absolutely want for my layout. I've found that after pre-ordering all I liked, there was nothing to go the hunt for at York or other train shows, which wasn't as fun since I had all I wanted already. 

So now I just order things I really want, like the MTH Norfolk Southern F7 Office Car Special ABBA set, which was another item I missed getting on its initial release. All the other "nice" items I like go on my B or C list to hunt for at shows and hobby shops. 

And speaking of waiting for pre-orders, I waited 3 1/2 years for the MTH UP #80 Coal Turbine diesel set! It took so long that it was catalogued as a Protosounds 2 item and was delivered as Protosounds 3!! But whether I pre- ordered or waited to see it in a hobby shop, I still would have waited 3 1/2 years for it. So I never cancel an order because of waiting time. In fact I never cancel an order, as I believe it is an obligation to the shop who doesn't charge me anything to order.


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## 86TA355SR (Feb 27, 2015)

I pre-order for two reasons.

1. Cost less.
2. Assures I get the item.

The VL PFE Reefers are examples of why. Basically, they sold out prior to delivery. Dealers and buyers knew it. Those dealers that ordered 'extras' sold out within days of delivery, even at MSRP. A lot of people who waited for a set missed out-or paid half again as much for them after delivery. Some paid more...

It works both ways. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it don't. Either way, if you pre-order, you pay less than after delivery.


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## Guest (Dec 26, 2015)

Santa believes in pre-orders as well. Hmmm, Yellow Warbonnets.


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

I confess, I pre-ordered the PFE Reefers.  However, I also bought another set when Pat's Trains had them available, and they were at the pre-order price.  I don't think there are many available now, they did go quick.


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## Guest (Dec 26, 2015)

Very smart, John.


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

I was a bit disappointed they only had one sound car, so I figured since they were still available, I'd add a second sound car. I think that's the "next big thing", having some sound and animation in the consist, makes it much more interesting as it comes by.


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