# Supply and Demand in the Marketplace



## Bryan Moran (Jan 15, 2017)

I have some items on ebay. I have 100% decided to focus on Rock Island, U.P., Burlington Route (CB & Q) and Milwaukee Road. Therefore, I placed my brand new Lionel Legacy Great Northern Hustle Muscle SD45 on ebay, I placed a BNSF GP38 as well that came from a RTR set, and a Katy (MKT) SD90 U.P. Heritage (Williams) locomotive on ebay. 

The BNSF GP38 sold for $112.50, OK, not bad. The beautiful Katy Heritage train is languishing at $135 no interest, and the Hustle Muscle I have at $599 (I paid $649). 

But what caught my eye was general browsing of other locomotives for sale and what appears to be very good prices for MTH P2's and Lionels, and some good Atlas and Williams. 

I bought a very nice Atlas E2 Burlington Route Phase 3 locomotive for a surprising $202.50! So even I got a bargain. 

What is going on? I was surprised to see many locomotives in my favored road names in the $100 range, granted older, and the new stuff not selling at the higher prices - but most of the offerings in the $100 to $200 range were perfectly fine diesels. 

Anybody else notice this? Do more folks come out of the woodwork to sell locomotives at Christmas and just dump them? 

I have $250 ish in my Katy Heritage locomotive. It is NOT your typical Williams. It has great detail, colors and runs like a champ. I have it on for $135 and just watchers. 

I wish I had about a $1000 right now. I could go in and clean up based on what I am seeing.


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## Severn (May 13, 2016)

There's just a ton of used out there.


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

They're just not worth what they used to be worth.


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## ERIE610 (Jan 19, 2015)

*I COLLECT WHAT I LIKE BUT NOT FOR PROFIT*

Model Railroading just like any other hobby out there. If one's motive to be in a certain hobby is to Speculate and make a buck or two then you will probably lose $$ in the end. By the time one adds up their time & effort $$$ plus shipping costs $$$ & various fees one would be lucky to break even. Of course if you have a rare piece of rolling stock or accessory to sell that may be a game changer. The title of this thread says it all. "Supply and Demand in the Marketplace". Good advice here buyer & seller beware always the case.

MY $0.02 WORTH


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## seayakbill (Jan 16, 2016)

The secondary market is saturated with product and Lionel & MTH continue to bring huge amounts to the market place every 6 months. It certainly is a buyers market right now.

Bill


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## Spence (Oct 15, 2015)

Your never going to get rich selling on Ebay.


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## Severn (May 13, 2016)

It's either the time of year, or my imagination but I feel as I've been pummeled in the last few weeks with more aggressive than usual sales offers by some of the online model train retailers I've used in the past ... (trainworld, model train stuff ... )


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## Norton (Nov 5, 2015)

I think those who have been in the hobby for a while are getting saturated, in my case way over saturated. Those few just getting started are probably reluctant to buy older used items they are not familiar with. 

Pete


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## B&O Forever (Nov 17, 2016)

The Boomers are getting old and passing. They leave a void and a lot of inventory.

I thing the next generation is lacking in railfans.


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## Tom_C (Jan 8, 2016)

Do a search on ebay and choose to show ended/sold auctions. That will show you what stuff has sold for in the past (assuming there are same or similar models).


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## MichaelE (Mar 7, 2018)

B&O Forever said:


> The Boomers are getting old and passing. They leave a void and a lot of inventory.
> 
> I thing the next generation is lacking in railfans.


Too busy with a mobile phone stuck in their faces to pay attention to anything else besides social media and what someone had for breakfast or who broke up with whom.


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## lou1985 (Oct 24, 2019)

MichaelE said:


> Too busy with a mobile phone stuck in their faces to pay attention to anything else besides social media and what someone had for breakfast or who broke up with whom.


Well it's also kinda hard to model in O scale if you don't have the room. Younger people don't tend to have houses with basements necessary for a model train layout. I'm in my mid 30's and consider myself lucky to have a house and space for a layout. My friends and I all have advanced degrees and decent incomes but only myself and one other friend have houses with basements/extra space. Everyone else rents or has a condo. Not much space in those situations for a layout. 

Let's not forget with newer stuff coming out with cooler features the price of older stuff that has been used drops significantly. I end up buying older stuff that is replaced by fancier stuff (sometimes MIB) for half the cost of new and then upgrading. Used market has a bunch of deals because there is a bunch of stuff to buy and fewer buyers. Simple supply and demand.


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## MichaelE (Mar 7, 2018)

For a decent size layout that is not a toy train layout going around in an oval I would agree. Time for HO or N.


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## Maxum (Apr 10, 2017)

Used items ( no matter what they are) usually sell for a fraction of their new cost. I laugh when I see people trying to sell used items for almost the cost of the same item new in the stores. My other favorite one is when someone claims because the MSRP on something 10 years ago was X amount of dollars, it's worth close to the same today. Unless you have some ultra rare highly desirable item, it's not going to keep it's value. 

A month ago I went to a train show. A seller had an MTH UP 9000 4-12-2 steam locomotive. The MSRP in 2007 when it was released was $1195. When I asked the seller what he was asking, his reponse was "I paid $1000 new for it and never ran it so I figure it's worth $900". I didn't even waste my time making an offer. I knew they'd been selling NIB on eBay (completed auctions) in the low $600 range. After the train show I put a bid in on a NIB 9000 on eBay. I won it for less than $550.

So the only time I pay anywhere close to new price on anything is when I buy it new from a retailer.


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## Maxum (Apr 10, 2017)

MichaelE said:


> Too busy with a mobile phone stuck in their faces to pay attention to anything else besides social media and what someone had for breakfast or who broke up with whom.


I think there is some validity in your point. But I am surprised at the large number of kids at the train shows these days. As much as I hate Thomas the Tank Engine, I feel it draws a large number of young kids into our hobby.


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## Chugman (Jun 17, 2015)

This is an interesting and frequently talked about topic.

I have been relatively lucky so far. I have tried to be disciplined about my purchases. By that I mean, I have mostly bought items that fit into my plan of only certain road names and only certain age ranges. The point is that I don't want to sell these items. The only exceptions has been the rare times when something was so ridiculously low in price that I couldn't pass it up. I can hear the snickering about that statement, but I am serious.

A couple examples of too good to pass up prices: 

Atlas 40" track $1.25 each
Atlas Articulated auto carriers $40 each

I have since sold what I didn't want at a profit. But these are rare exceptions and not everything is that way.

I agree that resale prices on our trains are depressing if you are a seller. The days of high prices on old collectible Lionel trains is probably gone forever on most of them. 

Art


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## Riggzie (Dec 24, 2019)

I sold a ton of stuff on ebay and barely got by. I was just trying to get back money as I bought a ton of stuff from craigslist in a gigantic lot... I then just wanted to recoop cost and only keep a few pieces to which I did.

I also was told around Xmas is the time of year to sell.. not sure as it is that time now and need to look.
all I know is I sold an H/O Amtrack train with 5 cars and got like $20 for it. It cost me $40 in shipping/ebay and paypal fees.. so it cost me $20 to sell it!!!!!!!


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## Goose (Dec 23, 2019)

I will be shopping for my new railroad early next year. I grew up in Jacksonville FL and went to the Moncrief yards often on my bicycle. I'll probably model the 60-70 Seaboard Airline, Atlantic Coast Line and SCL. Hoping to find some good deals to restart.


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## seayakbill (Jan 16, 2016)

[email protected] said:


> I sold a ton of stuff on ebay and barely got by. I was just trying to get back money as I bought a ton of stuff from craigslist in a gigantic lot... I then just wanted to recoop cost and only keep a few pieces to which I did.
> 
> I also was told around Xmas is the time of year to sell.. not sure as it is that time now and need to look.
> all I know is I sold an H/O Amtrack train with 5 cars and got like $20 for it. It cost me $40 in shipping/ebay and paypal fees.. so it cost me $20 to sell it!!!!!!!


Should have just dropped it off at the Goodwill, you would have been $20 ahead of the game.

Bill


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## Bryan Moran (Jan 15, 2017)

Thanks for all the input. Interesting perspectives. I am selling but my point was a bit of surprise in seeing some not all items at fair prices. A person can get a few locomotives for reasonable costs


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## Maxum (Apr 10, 2017)

Bryan Moran said:


> I am selling but my point was a bit of surprise in seeing some not all items at fair prices.


Something I have to remind myself of sometimes, an item is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it no matter how much I think it's worth.


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## Waddy (Dec 18, 2014)

You don't recoup much of your money in very many hobbies, except maybe militaria, coins, and a few others. Ever try to sell some old golf clubs? Might as well give them away. Trains should be considered a write-off. I got in cheap and plan to keep it that way. I run everything I have, and weather everything. Nothing sits in a box on the shelf. I bought it all very cheap and don't care if my heirs make much on it.

I think the key to keeping costs down is to plan ahead on what brand of track you want, what brand of locomotives, what type of power source; (I knew I was only going to run MTH 5Volt PS2-3, so I bought two MPI 36amp-18volt transformers on ebay for $50). Then buy rolling stock wherever you find it cheap, like Choo Choo auctions.


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## seayakbill (Jan 16, 2016)

I plan on running the heck out of my trains until the day I check out. My two oldest Grandsons will have the honors of disposing of the trains and will split the proceeds with the other grandkids. They don't have a single cent invested in the trains so it will be all profit to them.

Bill


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## Millstonemike (Aug 9, 2018)

Waddy said:


> ...
> 
> I think the key to keeping costs down is to plan ahead on what brand of track you want, what brand of locomotives, what type of power source; (I knew I was only going to run MTH 5Volt PS2-3, so I bought two MPI 36amp-18volt transformers on ebay for $50). Then buy rolling stock wherever you find it cheap, like Choo Choo auctions.


Smart. But I thought MTH wanted a constant 18 V DC on the track. 18 V AC works just as well?


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## Waddy (Dec 18, 2014)

Millstonemike said:


> Smart. But I thought MTH wanted a constant 18 V DC on the track. 18 V AC works just as well?


I believe most HO runs on DC, and MTH O scale _will run_ on DC (although you will lose some important features) but it is normal to run them on AC. Any isolated 18 v AC transformer capable of enough amps for your number of locomotives will work for running DCS. Also use a fuse for each track; I run 8 tracks. I use 7.5 amp Airpax breakers. 
For running conventional, stick a controller (throttle) in between that fuse at the transformer and the track. They're dirt cheap. I have a couple that I got off ebay as I run my lighting off an MTH z1000 brick, which often come with a controller. If I did use an MTH controller for conventional, I would fuse it at 6 amps, which is what their controller is rated for, at least mine are.

BTW; my MTH PS2-3 loco's only pull about 1.5 amps, and the LED lit passenger cars almost negligible amps. I run an analog amp meter on each track, which tells me when I'm running too many cars for the loco; the amp draw will go up too much. That means I may be overheating things a little. Time to double head the loco!!

Maybe more than you wanted to know


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## Millstonemike (Aug 9, 2018)

Waddy said:


> I believe most HO runs on DC, and MTH O scale _will run_ on DC (although you will lose some important features) but it is normal to run them on AC. Any isolated 18 v AC transformer capable of enough amps for your number of locomotives will work for running DCS. Also use a fuse for each track; I run 8 tracks. I use 7.5 amp Airpax breakers.
> For running conventional, stick a controller (throttle) in between that fuse at the transformer and the track. They're dirt cheap. I have a couple that I got off ebay as I run my lighting off an MTH z1000 brick, which often come with a controller. If I did use an MTH controller for conventional, I would fuse it at 6 amps, which is what their controller is rated for, at least mine are.
> 
> BTW; my MTH PS2-3 loco's only pull about 1.5 amps, and the LED lit passenger cars almost negligible amps. I run an analog amp meter on each track, which tells me when I'm running too many cars for the loco; the amp draw will go up too much. That means I may be overheating things a little. Time to double head the loco!!
> ...


I run conventional. But am curious as to the more modern configurations so all the info is welcome.


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## Waddy (Dec 18, 2014)

Millstonemike said:


> I run conventional. But am curious as to the more modern configurations so all the info is welcome.


If you only run a couple of conventional loco's then maybe a z1000 brick and controller will work well for you. They actually deliver about 8 amps. Those MTH transformers (called bricks) have an excellent circuit breaker built in.

If you run a lot of conventional loco's (they draw more current tha PS2-3 loco's) I wouldn't pay the high cost of the MTH z4000. I would buy a model (Bell Signal) MPI 650-36 transformer from Mouser or find one on ebay. You get 36 amps at 18 volts. Then run as many MTH cheap controllers as you need for each track off that. Just be sure to fuse each one at 6 amps.

Mouser sells the MPI 650-36 for about $180. I found two new ones on ebay for $50. easy peasy to set up.

Train locomotives are just electronics. Most of the time no need to buy the overpriced "train company" stuff.


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## Millstonemike (Aug 9, 2018)

Waddy said:


> If you only run a couple of conventional loco's then maybe a z1000 brick and controller will work well for you. They actually deliver about 8 amps. Those MTH transformers (called bricks) have an excellent circuit breaker built in.
> 
> If you run a lot of conventional loco's (they draw more current tha PS2-3 loco's) I wouldn't pay the high cost of the MTH z4000. I would buy a model (Bell Signal) MPI 650-36 transformer from Mouser or find one on ebay. You get 36 amps at 18 volts. Then run as many MTH cheap controllers as you need for each track off that. Just be sure to fuse each one at 6 amps.
> 
> ...


I'm good for power. I have a VW, 1033 and 1044 (and a myriad of Marx transformers as well). I'll have three loops when my layout is finished and primarily run tinplate with a half dozen passenger cars in tow. I may pick up a KW - just because they're so cool. But I'll stick with pre-war models to complete "the look". And some of my pre-war tinplate likes the higher voltages you get from a VW/ZW, KW, etc.

But I do have a 1980's William ABA with 4 motors and 7 lighted passenger cars w/ two incandescent bulbs each. I'll have to see current draw when I get that consist running. If the the VW can't handle it, neither will the 6 amp MTH controllers.

I do like the "push-to-reset" circuit breakers that mount like a toggle switch. They'll be in my control panel to save the pre-war transformers' breakers. I also perused AliExpress this morning for 0-10 A AC analog meters. They may make the control panel as well.

Lot's of projects, all the time left in the world left to complete them ...


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## Waddy (Dec 18, 2014)

Millstonemike said:


> I'm good for power. I have a VW, 1033 and 1044 (and a myriad of Marx transformers as well). I'll have three loops when my layout is finished and primarily run tinplate with a half dozen passenger cars in tow. I may pick up a KW - just because they're so cool. But I'll stick with pre-war models to complete "the look". And some of my pre-war tinplate likes the higher voltages you get from a VW/ZW, KW, etc.
> 
> But I do have a 1980's William ABA with 4 motors and 7 lighted passenger cars w/ two incandescent bulbs each. I'll have to see current draw when I get that consist running. If the the VW can't handle it, neither will the 6 amp MTH controllers.
> 
> ...


Sounds like you have most of it figured out. FWIW; I also wired in "emergency stop" push button switches (ebay) to each of my two main transformers. They are big red switches that you just smack down on with your hand to cut _all_ power. I've been thinking of placing a couple more at strategic points around the layout.


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## Millstonemike (Aug 9, 2018)

Waddy said:


> Sounds like you have most of it figured out. FWIW; I also wired in "emergency stop" push button switches (ebay) to each of my two main transformers. They are big red switches that you just smack down on with your hand to cut _all_ power. I've been thinking of placing a couple more at strategic points around the layout.


With your power transformer's capacity that's a good idea.


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## BobS (Jun 18, 2015)

Getting back to the original subject. It ALWAYS seems that what you (or I) have for sale is not popular. I have been in this situation quite a bit. I tried to sell here, over at OGR and on FaceBook with no interest. So, I took everything (a lot of stuff anyway) to a local on-line auctioneer, and he sold everything. Sure, I _might_ have made more on eBay eventually, but there is far too much anxiety and waiting there for that special someone to happen along. 

I got rid of three car loads of train related items and ultimately collected about $4K in the end. 

I still sell occasionally on eBay and if I wait long enough, my stuff eventually sells. I just don't fret about it anymore. I list it with an "until cancelled or sold" option, and don't even worry about it. I'll usually list as a buy-it-now with an option to make an offer. Then I set the parameters about what I will or will not accept concerning the offer amount. It takes away the hassle. 

You have to know that you will probably sell stuff for about 50 to 60% of what you paid, but you will lessen your load of unrun equipment.


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## Tom_C (Jan 8, 2016)

That's what I do too, BobS. The general thought is that you make more if you list as auction with a low initial price. I have seen stuff sell on ebay for more than you can buy it retail, because people get into a bidding war... with maybe some alcohol involved 

But, I don't play that game, cause I've seen stuff (and bought stuff) for next to nothing in an auction if the timing is right. I don't take the chance.

I decide what I want, including free shipping (that seems to help) and then I just let it ride. It WILL eventually sell, at least most of the time.

Also, be sure to take nice clear closeup pics, and describe and show any and all information, defects, damage, etc. Don't hide anything. I'm much more inclined to buy something with a lot of detailed pics than I am if it just has one blurry pic, but says like new condition. I don't trust you.


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## Bryan Moran (Jan 15, 2017)

BobS said:


> Getting back to the original subject. It ALWAYS seems that what you (or I) have for sale is not popular. I have been in this situation quite a bit. I tried to sell here, over at OGR and on FaceBook with no interest. So, I took everything (a lot of stuff anyway) to a local on-line auctioneer, and he sold everything. Sure, I _might_ have made more on eBay eventually, but there is far too much anxiety and waiting there for that special someone to happen along.
> 
> I got rid of three car loads of train related items and ultimately collected about $4K in the end.
> 
> ...


Bob
Thank you for your real world example. I can summarize my recent experience. 

I got $112.50 for my BNSF GP38 that came out of a RTR kit. Not sure I lost anything on that. Can't remember what I paid for the RTR set. With my focus on R.I. and my other 3 road names, this was surplus so I am glad to move it out. I had it listed for $175 with no interest. 

In my thinking, with MTH Premier and Lionel Legacy costing $479 to $699, this was a win-win. The GP38 is a road hog often seen in BNSF consists. I suppose $112.50 is still a lot of money for a teenager who is trying to get into the hobby, but what did teenagers do in the 1950's with Lionel prices? They probably had to beg their parents even then. 

******

Next up I sold a Williams Katy MKT U.P. Heritage locomotive which I liked. I believe I got it for $200 at Frank's Trains in Overland Park KS on a splurge. It's a colorful nice looking locomotive, heavy and long, especially for a Williams. It sold for $130, a big loss but I needed it gone. Was not going to sell for more. 

******

Finally I have my Great Northern Hustle Muscle SD-45 on ebay and it's at $499.95 with no buyers. 2nd time around. I started it at full retail. There are 2 dealers that have 2 on continuous loop for $649. and $749. I don't get it. 

$649 was suggested retail by Lionel. My $499 represents a 25% discount. I have what I call 5 lookie loos who must just be monitoring auctions as a hobby. I had an offer of $495, which tells me I have someone interested in it at my low price, but did not want to get into a last minute bidding war to drive it up into the low $500's I guess. 

The Great Northern Hustle Muscle SD-45 is Legacy and is beautiful and high end. My thinking was - if you are truly a GN model railroader, this freight hauler must be in your line up. It's not even a question. It's the 1st 20 cylinder Diesel made and this Lionel model spared no expense. One of the few Lionel models I like. 

The catalog is late 2016 I think. I don't see MTH or Lionel making an SD45 any time soon. Lionel did it one other time. I was told by Lionel at Trainfest that they only made about 20 of these. I just don't get it. When I want something in my road name I get it, period. Just got an expensive Rock Island E8 A-A for $800, the Independence one, which I know MTH won't make again for 15 years maybe, by then I will have 99% of what I want purchased (I probably do now) 

That's the reason to buy the more expensive stuff. So this GN SD-45 not selling is a curiosity. I'm not sure it would do any better on consignment at the LHS. ebay seems to be the best option. 

*****

I am getting a divorce, so I have to dismantle the layout and box up all of my locomotives and rolling stock. I did run across some O27 rolling stock I thought about throwing on ebay but not worth it, time and such. I also came to realize I have more than enough rolling stock, so why do I keep looking for more? 

I wish ebay had real auctions, but it's no longer an auction style website. I wish sellers would list items at no reserve and low starting points so we could see what the true marketplace is. Starting higher, and waiting for the one person after several months that might buy an item, is nauseating to me. It does not represent the true marketplace. Maybe if guys like me who just "have to have it" stop, then prices will adjust. 

It's just a curiosity. We all know the O Scale hobby is in decline. We all want the 3-4 remaining manufacturers to keep offering new products. I buy new products more, because I want MTH and Lionel to be around in one form or another in 15 years when I am 71. (And longer) 

As I said though, I have more than enough rolling stock to run long 20 + car consists that look like a real one. I have enough locomotives, but will never stop adding Rock Island, Milwaukee Road, Burlington Route or U.P. Just be more selective. 

Yes we have these debates often, I was just surprised to see a few bargains around Christmas. Everyone have a great 2020!


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## BobS (Jun 18, 2015)

_My $499 represents a 25% discount. I have what I call 5 lookie loos who must just be monitoring auctions as a hobby. I had an offer of $495, which tells me I have someone interested in it at my low price, but did not want to get into a last minute bidding war to drive it up into the low $500's I guess. _

WHAT!? You had something listed at $499 and an offer of $495 that you did not accept? What were you thinking? I would never pass up a sale over 5 bucks, never!


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

This thread addresses the age old question of what something is "worth". That metric has never changed, it's only "worth" what someone will pay you for it. That really means that one day it might be worth $0, and the next it may be worth $100.  You can adjust those expectations by how long you're willing to wait for someone to buy it, but that's really always been the bottom line.

As for used locomotives, I rarely pay more than around 50% of the MSRP for a used item. That frequently means I don't get the buy, but that's alright with me. I have a shelf full of bargains that I've paid considerably less than my 50% benchmark for. Used freight cars I'll have a real difficult time parting with more than around $30 for MTH Premier or Lionel scale cars, simply because those deals come along enough to make the wait worth it. Most of my Premier passenger car sets have cost me from between $25 and $40 a car.

I do occasionally buy new items, but I love the used market, that's where the bargains are.


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## Rocky Mountaineer (Sep 19, 2015)

I guess I missed this thread... otherwise I would have chimed in sooner. Selling trains on the secondary market is a hit-or-miss proposition at best. Peeps expecting to sell at MSRP or even close to what they paid for something are in for a shock, because that just doesn't happen in real life with the exception of very, VERY few items (i.e., like a small handful of Lionel die-cast ES44 beauties). And if anybody tells you otherwise, they're lying through their teeth.

Since 2012, I can name only TWO items I sold for more than I paid for them: one was an extra 2-pack of Lionel Alaska RR 18" Superliner aluminum passenger cars, and the other was the Lionel VisionLine Ethanol tankers w/FreightSounds. To be honest, I wish I hadn't parted with the latter, since the recent crop of Lionel's sound cars aren't even a fraction as good as those original VisionLine tankers. The VisionLine reefers came close, but the individual sound cars are junk compared to the original VL offerings. But I digress....

Moving on... I only need one hand to count the number of items I've sold for a price anywhere close to what I paid for them. Off the top of my head, one such example was a recent sale of my Standard Gauge LCCA Goliath (Brute) with 3 matching Showroom cars. Only 50 sets were produced. So that pretty much defines a "limited" production run. Although since those were produced in 2013, some Standard Gauge train set paint schemes were recently made in as few as 10 units just before the MTH/LCT license expired last year. So THOSE are TRULY limited production. 

But for the most part, you need to enter into these transactions realizing the "heydays" of selling toy trains on the secondary market are over -- with very few exceptions. Many of us have vivid memories of the 1980's, when Lionel post-war goodies in excellent or better shape were drawing obscenely high price-points. For example, I still have a 1966 Lionel catalog that had the Virginian FM locomotive listed for $65, and the dealer marked it down to $52. In the 1980's, some of those FM's were $400+. And there was a JC Penny limited edition FM that was pushing north of $1,200 on the secondary market only a few years after it was released for just under $200.  That ain't happening anymore. Color those days gone forever. 

When I first offered some of my "excess inventory" trains for sale on the OGR Forum back around 2012, stuff moved quickly in those days. I'd list about 25-30 items, and WITHIN MINUTES there would be responses in the thread along with emails galore in my inbox. I recall needing to note the time-stamps to ensure I was selling fairly on a first-come-first-served basis. And MULTIPLE peeps were responding with "I'll take it" -- none of this BS crap like, "Will you take it for blah, blah, blah."

Bottom line... it was MUCH more fun selling online in those days. But as is always the case in life, we only have a short window to enjoy a good thing. Soon enough, other guys jumped aboard the forum-selling band wagon. And some of the sellers would drop their prices every day -- or a few even dropped them every hour -- when stuff didn't sell quickly. Unfortunately, those sellers conditioned good buyers to hold out on purchasing -- in hopes that the seller would drop the price later in the day or a few days later. Consequently, now everyone is expecting "fire sale" prices before showing any interest in purchasing. And that's just a fact of life.

The reason? THE MARKET IS SATURATED with both old and new product. And the importers keep pumping out more and more products each year. Just look at the catalogs today: 175-200 pages with Lord-knows-how-many product SKU's. Heck, Lionel is producing so many products, they can't even get colors right on products that are re-issues of stuff they made correctly years ago. The marketing staff can't coordinate production with overseas factories, because nobody knows what's being shipped until the finished products arrive in North Carolina.  

Back in the post-war secondary market heydays, those products commanded high prices because Lionel stopped producing those models. So the supply of "original Lionel" was limited to what was produced from the mid-1950's to the mid-1960's. Just a relatively short 10-year period... compared to today's almost unlimited amount of toy trains that have been produced annually since the 1990's. That's THREE DECADES of a super-saturated marketplace.

Consequently, sellers need to take this into account when they set their expectations. Ironically, much of the stuff I sell every now and then is in Mint or Like-New condition -- excellent at the very worst. Below that... and I don't bother trying to sell it, since nobody would be interested anyway. And even with Like New products, you've gotta give buyers an incentive to buy YOUR stuff vs. either new stuff (which is usually MUCH more expensive) or the good stuff that everybody and the brother is also trying to sell. At a bare minimum, there's no standard warranty from Lionel and MTH for anything somebody buys from you. So right there, you need to account for that in your prices. And beyond that, what differentiates your stuff from all the other guys selling their stuff? Often, it's nothing but price and condition initially. And after that, it's the relationship that you build with repeat buyers and the confidence they have in dealing with you.

Sorry.... but that's the reality of today's toy train market. At the end of the day though, I guess I'm still glad that there is SOME type of well-defined secondary market in which our Like New trains are worth SOMETHING to somebody. Things could be worse in that nobody could want them. But we're far from that point (thankfully). Last November, the Allentown ATMA show was packed with peeps -- as was York just a month earlier. I enjoyed a productive Allentown weekend holding down a couple of tables at the show. But it's a TON of work though, and I'm not getting any younger. Hauling trains around... renting a U-Haul van... setting up a well-merchandised booth... and hoping you return home with a lot less than you brought is hard physical work. Honestly, I don't know how the everyday dealers do it visiting multiple train shows each year. And amidst all of that, you can always count on some yokel who wants to low-ball you hoping you're so desperate to sell that you'll take ANY offer so he can grin ear-to-ear walking away with his new prized possession. Funny thing is you can usually spot those types a mile away.  

Best of luck in your sales. Not everyone is looking to steal things from you. I met a few fellows in Allentown who were so pleased with the stuff they bought at the show, they called me back for some other goodies a few weeks later. So be patient... know the market... price your stuff fairly... and try to keep each transaction in the win/win zone. If the buyer is pushing for win/lose, just smile back and tell him it's not gonna happen. 

David


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## Bryan Moran (Jan 15, 2017)

BobS said:


> _My $499 represents a 25% discount. I have what I call 5 lookie loos who must just be monitoring auctions as a hobby. I had an offer of $495, which tells me I have someone interested in it at my low price, but did not want to get into a last minute bidding war to drive it up into the low $500's I guess. _
> 
> WHAT!? You had something listed at $499 and an offer of $495 that you did not accept? What were you thinking? I would never pass up a sale over 5 bucks, never!


Bob, 
I understand, but the guy offering $495 was attempting to pay less than it may end at. As someone else noted, eventually items sell on ebay. I have 5 watchers. What this guy that offered $495 was trying to do, was not have to pay more than $499. He's interested enough to pay $495, then I expect a late bid from him. But, he doesn't want to pay much more, or any more. My goal is to minimize my loss so somewhere between $499 and $649. Every little bit helps. 

So that is why I turned him down.


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## Bryan Moran (Jan 15, 2017)

gunrunnerjohn said:


> This thread addresses the age old question of what something is "worth". That metric has never changed, it's only "worth" what someone will pay you for it. That really means that one day it might be worth $0, and the next it may be worth $100.  You can adjust those expectations by how long you're willing to wait for someone to buy it, but that's really always been the bottom line.
> 
> As for used locomotives, I rarely pay more than around 50% of the MSRP for a used item. That frequently means I don't get the buy, but that's alright with me. I have a shelf full of bargains that I've paid considerably less than my 50% benchmark for. Used freight cars I'll have a real difficult time parting with more than around $30 for MTH Premier or Lionel scale cars, simply because those deals come along enough to make the wait worth it. Most of my Premier passenger car sets have cost me from between $25 and $40 a car.
> 
> I do occasionally buy new items, but I love the used market, that's where the bargains are.


All good and fair points. It's no different than new vehicles I guess. As soon as you drive one off the lot, it's a used car and worth maybe 85% of cost. I feel a bit privileged to own the GN Hustle Muscle in this over the top detail and sounds. 

I guess this is one I'll have to keep unless someone wants it at $499 +. I started this thread because of the VALUE I was seeing in the used ebay market. I do not need any more rolling stock but I snagged some good buys over the past few weeks, as you point out John.


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## Bryan Moran (Jan 15, 2017)

Rocky Mountaineer said:


> I guess I missed this thread... otherwise I would have chimed in sooner. Selling trains on the secondary market is a hit-or-miss proposition at best. Peeps expecting to sell at MSRP or even close to what they paid for something are in for a shock, because that just doesn't happen in real life with the exception of very, VERY few items (i.e., like a small handful of Lionel die-cast ES44 beauties). And if anybody tells you otherwise, they're lying through their teeth.
> 
> Moving on... I only need one hand to count the number of items I've sold for a price anywhere close to what I paid for them.
> 
> ...


David - 

I had not seen a post from you recently, although I have not been here for awhile either, so it's good to know you are still around!

This thread started out with me noting the "fair" prices for locomotives and rolling stock I had seen over the holiday stretch. NOT complaining about why nobody wants my SD-45. 

I'm 100% OK with lower prices on my road names. I am a person who pays almost full retail or full retail at dealers such as Caboose Stop out of Cedar Falls. I pay full retail to support the remaining dealers, many of whom will be gone in the next 10-15 years. Merlyn from Caboose Stop and his wife are retirement age now, and do so many shows it's incredible. 

I have a $2900 MTH order in. I support the manufacturers and I want the detail, not O27 stuff. 

But, at some point, I have to think that iconic locomotives like my GN Hustle Muscle SD-45 have to trip the trigger of geeks like me who saw no issue dropping $649 at the LHS. 

I'm not asking $649, but I won't take 50 cents on the dollar. I know the 2 rail guys have boatloads of cash, this hobby for the higher end stuff is for rich guys living in the suburbs - this is their hobby. 

I am trying to strike a balance between Williams locomotives and Rail King rolling stock in some cases and the Legacy and Premier stuff. 

Another thing David, and GRJ and others - why are some of these locomotives run in continuous loop on ebay at exorbitant prices with never any change? Do those few dealers or people simply believe that somebody, someday will buy their 110% priced Lionel Legacy locomotive? That is why it's driving me nuts that no one wants my 25% off price when they can clearly see 2 other same items, new as mine is, for much more!

I just wish ebay would have different sections of auctions or sales. Let the dealers have their own area at take it or leave it prices and let them see how few hits they receive - then - have a marketplace with no reserve auctions and reasonable starting prices to let the market decide. 

If that were the case, then it would really be more of an exchange, not a marketplace to make max profit - but maybe - I have lost interest in these items, I'll put them on this ebay marketplace and go get something I want at a fair price. Right now, these items are mixed in with dealer stuff that is overpriced and mucking up the water.


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

David jumped ship and went to the competition.


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## Rocky Mountaineer (Sep 19, 2015)

gunrunnerjohn said:


> David jumped ship and went to the competition.


Actually, I try to be an equal opportunity poster wherever I'm welcome.  I don't view the new OGF as "competition" as much as just another good dedicated O-Gauge venue to talk trains and share information. Now the OTHER place? That's a place I SHOULD HAVE jumped ship YEARS ago -- spent WAY too many years putting up with their forum management shenanigans. But that's another story for another day.

I'm thankful there are TWO very good online forums for sharing model train knowledge and experiences where adults are treated like adults: MTF and OGF. 

David


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

I don't know Dave, I tried to join OGF and was summarily rejected, that's not my idea of "treating adults like adults".


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## beachhead2 (Oct 31, 2017)

A few thoughts regarding "lookie loos" on ebay (and buyer mentality in general).

I add items to my ebay watchlist continually. Almost always, *I have zero interest in the item*. There are a few reasons I do that:

1) For items I want to purchase, I keep a spreadsheet on sales comps so I know where the market is before I buy. Therefore, I place items on my Watchlist to get comparable sales data.

2) Sometimes I see something I already own. I may think "that is a preposterously high price" and therefore I watch to see if it sells. If it does, I may list my item.

3) In the case of trains, I may see an item I like with the wrong road name. But maybe the road name I want was listed in the same catalog originally. Again, I'll watch it to get a comp and gauge the market.

And lastly, on ebay I *never *watch items I'm truly interested in. Watched items are visible to the seller. That is something I learned from the sports memorabilia market (which I used to be into heavily). Shill bidding is rampant in that hobby. Sellers set up dummy accounts on ebay to bid-up their own items. The only way to protect yourself from that on ebay is to place one snipe with your best price.

So when I see a low starting bid, I give it a kiss with an opener (.99 cents or whatever). That places it on my ebay summary where I can keep an eye on it. *No watchlist* where the seller can see it on their end. Then I use a bidding service (like BidNapper or GavelSnipe) to snipe the auction at my best price with 3 seconds left. 

That's ebay. Until they switch to a different system (e.g., GunBroker, if anyone uses that), IMO there's no other way to play it as a buyer.


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## BobS (Jun 18, 2015)

beachhead2.....please know that not all sellers are crooks and don't use shills to increase the cost of items they are attempting to sell. 

I see many looks-loos when I am selling something. I usually send them an offer at a reduced price just to see if they are truly interested. NEVER have they responded. They are a bother to the sellers who are just hoping that there is a truly interested party out there. After making an offer, I stop paying attention to look-loos. Let them look for whatever their interest is. 

People who genuinely want something will bid or buy if they see it is something worthwhile.


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## beachhead2 (Oct 31, 2017)

BobS said:


> beachhead2.....please know that not all sellers are crooks and don't use shills to increase the cost of items they are attempting to sell.


I understand that 100%. In fact, I bet it's pretty darn rare when it comes to trains.

That said, I buy everything on ebay that way: put in an opening bid, then hang back and snipe. Keeps it simple and protects my wallet as much as possible.


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## Rocky Mountaineer (Sep 19, 2015)

beachhead2 said:


> ...
> 
> That said, I buy everything on ebay that way: put in an opening bid, then hang back and snipe. Keeps it simple and protects my wallet as much as possible.


I often don't even place the opening bid, because I keep a close eye on the few things I'm interested in anyway. The ONLY time I've won an "auction" item on eBay (as opposed to a Buy-It-Now) is by sniping within seconds of the auction's close. I don't use bid services though. I'm still amazed how many folks bid way before the auction closes like it's an in-person auction.  

Except for somebody who's secretly placed a very high maxbid (i.e., one that's higher than a last second sniped bid), most folks that bid multiple times throughout the auction seldom win the auction. At least that's been my observation. 

To date, I can count on one hand the number of items I've sniped manually at the last minute and lost. Most of the time, I've been lucky that way. Then again, I really don't buy much on eBay these days.


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## beachhead2 (Oct 31, 2017)

Bryan Moran said:


> Another thing David, and GRJ and others - why are some of these locomotives run in continuous loop on ebay at exorbitant prices with never any change? Do those few dealers or people simply believe that somebody, someday will buy their 110% priced Lionel Legacy locomotive?


It stinks but that's ebay. It's not just trains. It's like that for everything.


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## Maxum (Apr 10, 2017)

I've been using ebay for over 20 years now. Most of the time I've done fairly well. Been a couple of times I didn't do so hot. In the last few years ebay has changed and definitely favors buyers over sellers. That's been nice on a few auctions where the item I bought wasn't quite as advertised by the seller. Usually when I send photos of the discrepancy about the condition of the item and point out how their ad didn't not mention this, they are usually willing to give either a partial refund or take the item back. I've only had one seller fight me on a locomotive that was in terrible condition (filthy, missing parts) and would barely run after it was advertised as being like new. He told me too bad when I asked for a refund. After contacting ebay about his misleading ad, they told me I could keep the locomotive and gave me a full refund. I sent it back to the seller with a shipping label from ebay. 

I love sniping. I probably win about 75%-80% of the auctions I bid on using it. If you bid early on, some people get crazy and will go over your bid even if they're overpaying. You bid at the last second, they don't have a chance to up their bid. I know some don't like it, but a lot of us do. I recently won a NIB MTH PS2 UP 9000 4-12-2 locomotive on ebay for $550. Just two weeks early I saw the same model locomotive at a show. The seller wanted $900 for it. Checking the sold listings on ebay for the same locomotive showed the lowest price had been around $615. You know full well had I bid on that locomotive earlier, someone would have came back and outbid me. The most important thing you have to remember as a buyer, research the item you're wanting to buy so you know what they're are selling for and don't over bid on it. Set a price and stick to it. 

As a seller, ebay can be a pain. I try very hard to be honest about the condition of the item I'm selling and take good detailed pictures. In my time on ebay, I've never had a complaint that I didn't advertise my item for sale honestly. The biggest problem as a seller I've had is idiots bidding on stuff and not paying. I have to go through the hassle of listing them as a non-paying bidder and wait to relist my item.


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## beachhead2 (Oct 31, 2017)

Maxum said:


> As a seller, ebay can be a pain. I try very hard to be honest about the condition of the item I'm selling and take good detailed pictures. In my time on ebay, I've never had a complaint that I didn't advertise my item for sale honestly. The biggest problem as a seller I've had is idiots bidding on stuff and not paying. I have to go through the hassle of listing them as a non-paying bidder and wait to relist my item.


I haven't sold on Ebay in a few years. From the horror stories I hear from sellers, I'm not sure I ever will. And yes, if you're not sniping on Ebay, you're not doing it right!


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## Millstonemike (Aug 9, 2018)

Maxum said:


> ... I love sniping. I probably win about 75%-80% of the auctions I bid on using it.


Especially when the bidding ends, say, on a Tuesday at 8 am Eastern time. Not many other bidders waiting until the last minute.


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## Volphin (Dec 7, 2015)

I snipe as well, but I've also secretly enjoyed bidding up an item I've lost... LOL
The last guy paid $154 for a 50 dollar caboose. HAHAHAHA.


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## beachhead2 (Oct 31, 2017)

That's a dangerous game. But I've done it too.


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## Maxum (Apr 10, 2017)

I screwed up once and accidentally put an extra digit in a bid I set up on a snipe. I didn't realize it until I got an email I'd won the auction with a bid higher than I had wanted to pay. Learned to double check my snipes entries after that.


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## seayakbill (Jan 16, 2016)

Volphin said:


> I snipe as well, but I've also secretly enjoyed bidding up an item I've lost... LOL
> The last guy paid $154 for a 50 dollar caboose. HAHAHAHA.


I never went to that extreme but I have pushed the envelope, thinking If I win the bid I probably paid to much.

Bill


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## BobS (Jun 18, 2015)

Before eSnipe came along (yeah, there was time before sniping) I used to do everything live. I would get caught up in last second bidding, and when everything was dial-up, you're bid always didn't get posted in time. I was into Blenko Glass at the time, and bidding was fierce. Back then buyers and sellers all knew each other, and we could actually communicate with each other without restriction. I set up many a friendship with my competition and with sellers and would make deals outside eBay for reasonable prices. Those were truly heady days. 

Then eBay started to catch on and slowly stopped the ability to freely communicate with each other. Do any of you remember when an item would be offered for a penny with a shipping cost of fifty dollars? Back then eBay didn't charge a fee on the monies collected for shipping. As I said, heady days. They are gone now, and eBay threatens legal action if they feel you are avoiding paying the fees by selling or buying outside the venue. 

And, feedback really doesn't mean anything anymore either. Sellers used to be able to leave bad feedback for a dishonest buyer. No more. As someone said, eBay favors buyers over sellers. Which doesn't make any sense. eBay survives from seller fees, but they continue to rule in favor of a disgruntled buyer, who, for any minute reason what-so-ever, will complain and receive a full refund, and to hell with what the seller may say. And they discriminate by charging fees on shipping costs, so the sellers lose money on shipments or, if they actually try to break even by overcharging to cover eBay and PayPal fees, then the buyers grouse about shipping charges that they feel are too high and leave bad feedback in the end. 

It's a tough market to sell in these days, and there seems to be fewer and fewer buyers for most things offered for sale. I used to buy and sell Murano glass clowns. The market was truly a three ring circus. Today, you will find thousands of clowns offered for sale, and NO ONE is buying, at any cost. The market dried up. I have perhaps two hundred or so clowns, and everyone in my family has more than they will ever need. (as if anyone ever needed a glass clown) It is the same all over eBay. Most of today's disposable income goes for buying $1000 cell phones, iPads, I watches, and the ilk. 

So things have changed from those old days, when money flowed freely amongst the common folk. Now, without getting political, you must be in the upper echelon of the society to have lots of disposable income, and that money is probably used in buying stocks and bonds to acquire more income, and to hell with tchotchkes.


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## Riggzie (Dec 24, 2019)

before sniping.. i used to be up at auction close..3am with 2 screens up. 1 with item thet i kept refreshing and 1 with my max bid in but just need to click confirm.
sometimes bids went above with 1 minute to go and sometimes I won the item. either way I lost... in not getting the item or lack of sleep. hah.

I havent sniped in years and i forget who i used to use. auctionsniper i think. i may even still have money there. you used to have to load $ into them to be allowed to snipe.
I buy so little now that I havent bought on ebey in years.

my last ebay. For some reason no one wanted a dual xeon computer with 128gb ram. I got it for $118 to my door. I swapped cpus and memory into my server and flipped that computer on craigslist for $350!!!!


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## gunrunnerjohn (Nov 10, 2010)

Rocky Mountaineer said:


> To date, I can count on one hand the number of items I've sniped manually at the last minute and lost. Most of the time, I've been lucky that way. Then again, I really don't buy much on eBay these days.


That's the only way I bid, but I use a sniping service. I simply enter the price I'm willing to pay and then ignore the item until the auction expires. If I get a winning email, I pay and accept my bargain.


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