# Small runs of new models



## Steve Rothstein (Jan 1, 2021)

Am I the only one seeing a problem with most companies making too few copies of a new model? I have noticed that in many cases since I started looking for specific models, by the time I find out that a company made a run of it, they are all sold out already. A couple of them, I did see in advance and pre-ordered, but most of the time, I have no idea of what is being planned to do that.

For example, I was looking for an ES44 locomotive in UP livery. I prefer to order with DCC and sound already installed but can go with just DCC. Kato announced they would be making a run of them a few months ago and I asked my LHS to order one for me. Kato just announced that they had shipped the DCC versions but the sound ones are delayed slightly. I was at the hobby shop talking and the DCC are already out of stock at both distributors he uses. I was going to change and go without the sound but can't now. While we were looking around, I saw that Broadway Limited had also just completed a run and advertised them as in stores now. I looked at it and said I would change to that and they were also already out of stock at the distributors.

I understand companies not wanting to get stuck with too many of anything in their warehouse, but if the distributors are selling out that quickly, there is clearly a market for a larger run. It might not be much larger, but increasing the size by a few (say 50 or 100, but even as low as 10 if they are already using very low numbers) each run would help them find out exactly where that limit was.


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## Old_Hobo (Feb 20, 2014)

Many, if not most, manufacturers now go with pre-order numbers, and that’s how many they make (along with a few extras for defect/warranty issues, which they don’t want to sell because of that)…..you are correct, they don’t want too much product sitting around, as it costs money to warehouse…..plus, selling out a run will give them the cash flow to do the next model, and so on and so on…..

These days, you really have to be on top of it, and get your pre-order intentions in early, so you’re included in the production run….it’s a different world now…..


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## CTValleyRR (Jul 26, 2014)

Steve Rothstein said:


> Am I the only one seeing a problem with most companies making too few copies of a new model? I have noticed that in many cases since I started looking for specific models, by the time I find out that a company made a run of it, they are all sold out already. A couple of them, I did see in advance and pre-ordered, but most of the time, I have no idea of what is being planned to do that.
> 
> For example, I was looking for an ES44 locomotive in UP livery. I prefer to order with DCC and sound already installed but can go with just DCC. Kato announced they would be making a run of them a few months ago and I asked my LHS to order one for me. Kato just announced that they had shipped the DCC versions but the sound ones are delayed slightly. I was at the hobby shop talking and the DCC are already out of stock at both distributors he uses. I was going to change and go without the sound but can't now. While we were looking around, I saw that Broadway Limited had also just completed a run and advertised them as in stores now. I looked at it and said I would change to that and they were also already out of stock at the distributors.
> 
> I understand companies not wanting to get stuck with too many of anything in their warehouse, but if the distributors are selling out that quickly, there is clearly a market for a larger run. It might not be much larger, but increasing the size by a few (say 50 or 100, but even as low as 10 if they are already using very low numbers) each run would help them find out exactly where that limit was.


Well, you're right in that this whole situation is driven by inventory concerns. No one, not manufacturer's, not wholesalers, not retailers wants to end up with dead stock. Dead stock has killed too many players,, especially small Mom & Pop retailers. From a business perspective, it is better to end up with unfulfilled demand than excess inventory, Like it or not, that's how the hobby works now. It's really a pretty small market -- there aren't more than a few hundred thousand of us world wide, and it's a very rare product that appeals to even a large segment of that. They're also durable products. You're not going to buy a UP ES44 every month, or even every year, but you may well be one and done.

The problem is that "just making a few more" isn't like whipping up another batch of brownies. Products are made under contract: "Produce X copies of product Y per the drawings and specs in the attached pages. Deliver them to me by this date at a cost of so much". They haggle over dates and prices. And when it's done, the manufacturer retools his line (a not inconsequential process often involving several man-days of labor) and moves on to the next run of a different product. The purchaser usually provides wheels, couplers, decals, detail parts, and packaging materials to the factory in advance of the production run. So these factories aren't just sitting there, waiting for someone to call and ask for a few more copies of a certain loco. It's also not cost effective to run small lots, so the manufacturers want demand to build up to a sizeable level before they make another run.

But the thing is, they DO track demand, how fast items sell out and so forth, because they do want to maximize the size of the run WITHOUT exceeding predicted demand. Fixed costs are amortized over the number of units made, so more units means a lower price per unit (and potentially more profit per unit). If they perceive a strong demand, they will rerun a model.

So what can you do? First of all, register your demand. E-mail and ask when they have another run scheduled. Even if they don't answer, they're probably making a note of interest in a given model. Second, be observant. Watch manufacturers' websites and those of wholesalers (Walthers) and the major retailers. Subscribe to their e-mails for product announcements. Read the hobby press new releases section (Model Railroad Hobbyist has a very comprehensive one). And if you see something you MUST have, pre-order it. It sounds like you tried that, and your local hobby shop screwed you, although if you didn't at least give him a deposit I can see why he wouldn't pre-order it.


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## MichaelE (Mar 7, 2018)

European manufacturers are no different except there is no 'slow boat from China' to wait on. Supply, demand, and manufacturing is about the same for Chinese production that everyone else buys.

Hobby shops in Europe allow you to pre-order to give the manufacturer an indication of demand and base production on that. They may or may not add a percentage to the indicated demand because in the interim of placing the pre-order and ready-for-delivery period, hobbyists may have spent their Euros elswhere and were tired of waiting for something that may have never arrived.

It sucks, but that's the way it is today. I have had three pre orders pending for five months, but arrival isn't scheduled until first Q22. And then who knows if it will ever be produced? I've managed to hone my patient skills in the Euro train hobby.


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## pmcgurin (Sep 7, 2010)

is all this affecting the resale prices today as on ebay?


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## Old_Hobo (Feb 20, 2014)

Of course…..the rarer the item, the higher the price….supply and demand….


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## Trainman41 (Jan 6, 2022)

Steve Rothstein said:


> Am I the only one seeing a problem with most companies making too few copies of a new model? I have noticed that in many cases since I started looking for specific models, by the time I find out that a company made a run of it, they are all sold out already. A couple of them, I did see in advance and pre-ordered, but most of the time, I have no idea of what is being planned to do that.
> 
> For example, I was looking for an ES44 locomotive in UP livery. I prefer to order with DCC and sound already installed but can go with just DCC. Kato announced they would be making a run of them a few months ago and I asked my LHS to order one for me. Kato just announced that they had shipped the DCC versions but the sound ones are delayed slightly. I was at the hobby shop talking and the DCC are already out of stock at both distributors he uses. I was going to change and go without the sound but can't now. While we were looking around, I saw that Broadway Limited had also just completed a run and advertised them as in stores now. I looked at it and said I would change to that and they were also already out of stock at the distributors.
> 
> I understand companies not wanting to get stuck with too many of anything in their warehouse, but if the distributors are selling out that quickly, there is clearly a market for a larger run. It might not be much larger, but increasing the size by a few (say 50 or 100, but even as low as 10 if they are already using very low numbers) each run would help them find out exactly where that limit was.



I know what you mean. Several years ago, I picked up a Bachmann N scale 2-10-2. It was a great looking locomotive, but even more important, it was a great running engine. Bachmann steam locomotives tend to run hot and cold on running qualities. Recently I wanted to buy another 2-10-2, and they are not in production at this time and none of the trains shops have them.


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## pmcgurin (Sep 7, 2010)

I think you need to get what you want while the getting is good. You need to develop a relationship with a shop or a knowledgeable seller who will tip you off about what is coming on the market. Or you spend time on internet searches and facebook relationships.


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