# End of the Line for Model Trains? Aging Hobbyists Trundle On



## Roving Sign (Apr 23, 2017)

_Sorry WSJ paywall source...and didn't realize this was an older article til after I posted it_

https://www.wsj.com/articles/end-of-the-line-for-model-trains-aging-hobbyists-trundle-on-1455157546

For Christmas in 1960, Ron Mei got a Lionel train set. More than 55 years later, he still hasn’t found a better toy.

By creating model railroads, “you learn carpentry,” said Mr. Mei, 62 years old, who runs a motorcycle-parts business in Phoenix and spends 20 to 25 hours a week with his trains. “You learn electric. You learn painting. Kids today, they have skill in one thing—that’s a videogame or a smartphone.”

Link to video:

https://www.wsj.com/video/working-o...ins/3DCFC24A-E417-452D-9173-B1AEE8EB29B3.html


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## Frisco Firefly (May 17, 2012)

Roving Sign said:


> _Sorry WSJ paywall source...and didn't realize this was an older article til after I posted it_
> 
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/end-of-the-line-for-model-trains-aging-hobbyists-trundle-on-1455157546
> 
> ...


Within the link is another article that will give everyone insight as to what is happening.

What is 'Fortnite'?: A look at the video game that has become a phenomenon
The game now makes more than $300 million per month — even though it's free to play.
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/what-fortnite-look-video-game-has-become-phenomenon-n887706

There will be those that chime in to say they know kids that are playing with trains. Very true. But for every kid they know that are playing with trains, there are thousands that are not, they are playing these addicting shooter games or playing on their cell phone and using social media. 

$300 million per month. Toy train manufacturers would be lucky to take in a million in a year.


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## Vincent (Jan 28, 2018)

Good article, Roving Sign.


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## J.Albert1949 (Feb 3, 2018)

No "paywall" here (Mac using Safari).

Article opened, video played, comments viewable.


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## cv_acr (Oct 28, 2011)

Blah blah blah blah blah. 

This again.

The hobby has been "dying" since the 1950s.

If it's so dead why are there so many new products coming out every year?


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## Eilif (Nov 6, 2017)

For everyone who thinks model hobbies are dying check out Adepticon or one of the other fantasy wargaming conventions around the country.

It's not trains, historical games are the minority and is still a niche. However, see the painted armies and terrain and its clear that folks from late teens to 50s have not abandoned the modeling arts even as video games have grown.

Also, how many kids really had a layout in the past anyway? I came up in the 80s in the suburbs and except for Christmas tree loops, my tiny loop with sidings was the only one I saw any child have my entire childhood. Most kids were to busy playing outside and with toys to railroad.

Not that this will comfort train fans but just a bit of perspective for those tempted to don their rosey-past-looking glasses and bemoan the state of today's youth and young adults.


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## sjm9911 (Dec 20, 2012)

If you grew up before that you would see more layouts. I said it in another post, its dieing, slowly but going. Yes ill agree modeling has transgressed to other forms. Its a niche hobby for sure. But i see less and less of it even in the model shops geared towards d and d and warhammer etc.


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## Dennis461 (Jan 5, 2018)

*confused*

I'm confused...if demand is going down, why are prices going up?
Surely there is an overabundance of boxcars somewhere?


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## Andreash (Dec 30, 2018)

I love the hobby, started when I was 13, (40 years ago), and I love the new stuff that comes out, but I buy only what I need ( their are a lot of temptations ). I think through that the business model from the manufacturers will hit a wall, as I just don’t think the younger generations are there in numbers. I’m not going to kid myself, I likely would be into video gaming if I was a teen today. But back in the day, it was more affordable to get into trains. I found a old blue box loco, and adjusted for inflation would be $91 today. Yes, I know it’s not up to specs, but my modern day Athearn genesis need to handled with gloves.


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## mopac (Feb 24, 2011)

I have been in the train hobby for around 40 years, maybe more. For 40 years I have heard the end is coming. Hasn't happened yet. Do teens and young adults play with
trains today? No. They never did. When I was in my teens and a young adult I did not
play with trains either. I was more into hot cars and hot chicks. When I got married and
had kids I got back into trains. That's how it works. My wife made me give up on hot chicks and I guess hot cars also. These video gamming young people will change also.
They will pick up different hobbies. Maybe trains. I think the model train hobby is better
today ( I didn't say bigger) than ever. The trains are sure better. The end of the hobby is not anywhere here in the near future.


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## mopac (Feb 24, 2011)

Andreash, welcome to the train forum. I have many old bluebox athearns. They are
more rugged than todays locomotives. I have some still brand new in box. I also
still use them. I have converted some to DCC, paint the handrails, add a plow to the front
and they are not bad. LOL, they growl more than the new ones. I have too many BLI
and other quality locos. See guys, the hobby doesn't end, it evolves.


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## Panther (Oct 5, 2015)

The sad reality is, today kids don't care about anything but social media and their games and apps.
I watch T.V. and see clips where they ask young adults basic questions about the world and history. Dumb as rocks. It is disturbing, do they not teaching them in school or do they not listen ion school, probably both. First thing is, they should not allow cell phones in school. We couldn't even write small notes to each other, now they can call anyone and hold a conversation during class. Who exactly runs our school the kids or the teachers. THE KIDS.

Dan


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## Guest (Dec 31, 2018)

The reports of the death of the hobby have been greatly exaggerated. I see many young model railroaders at train shows. Some of them will stick with the hobby the rest of their lives. In my seven decades in the hobby I've heard it was on it's deathbed many times but all were wrong. I am confident that the hobby will be here for a long time to come.


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## mopac (Feb 24, 2011)

I am confident that the hobby will be here for a long time to come. 
__________________

It will be here long after we are gone.


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## mesenteria (Oct 29, 2015)

Dennis461 said:


> I'm confused...if demand is going down, why are prices going up?
> Surely there is an overabundance of boxcars somewhere?



I'd have to agree with you; you're confused. 

Prices are going up because everyone in the production and distribution of our hobby 'stuff' needs to feed kids, a spouse mebbe, pay a mortgage, buy insurance, get teeth cleaned.....you get it. These are all getting more expensive, and he wants/needs them as much as you and I do. When his take-home pay begins to suffer, or no longer meets his needs, he'll raise prices some. And, if he has employees, they want a bigger cut of the after-sale revenue as well because THEIR costs are going up.

If it is true, and the hobby is dying, then that would drive prices skyward because the fewer sales must generate the same profits as before, but then with inflation that must rise some. If the numbers of units being sold drops, and the business is to survive, then something must be cut/given up, or prices must cover the difference.

Prices have risen dramatically because the people entrusted by BLI, Bachmann, MTH, Atlas, Athearn, and most of the brass market, to generate and to build quantities of models want more money for tooling, materials, and assembly. Those running the freighters across the Pacific are also demanding a fair wage, but that means rising to match real costs, including inflation. The Chinese worker has tripled his/her wages over the past 10 years. That doesn't come from steady-as-she-goes price. It comes from judicious price increases.

The basic principle of economics is that when something is overabundant, its value drops, and so its price drops. What you proposed above is contraindicated by that basic economic tenet. Instead, increasingly our hobby suppliers are ordering 'just in time' and keeping inventory low. Gone are the years you can contact Bachmann and ask for one of their 200 still-unsold E-33 electrics. All importers are ordering between 200 and 2000 items, many of them by pre-order. They simply cannot afford to warehouse unsold goods and to pay for new tooling.


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## Old_Hobo (Feb 20, 2014)

Panther said:


> The sad reality is, today kids don't care about anything but social media and their games and apps.
> I watch T.V. and see clips where they ask young adults basic questions about the world and history. Dumb as rocks. It is disturbing, do they not teaching them in school or do they not listen ion school, probably both. First thing is, they should not allaow cell phones in school. We couldn't even write small notes to each other, now they can call anyone and hold a conversation during class. Who exactly runs our school the kids or the teachers. THE KIDS


I see the parents as the biggest culprits in this.....teachers can only do so much....its the parents that are, or should be, the greatest influence in kid's lives....if the parents are condoning the poor behaviours, then all is indeed lost.....


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## J.Albert1949 (Feb 3, 2018)

As an older guy (69), I tend to agree with the original post and the WSJ article.

It's the same with the music I enjoy most (bluegrass).

Some younger folk still take an interest in it, but the numbers are "in decline", and those who -do- take an interest are by-and-large growin' old. Older players, older audiences.

Similarly, the interest in model trains (as well as "the big ones") will continue -- but the group of those who actively pursue the hobby will get smaller, a "shrinking core", if you will...


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## cv_acr (Oct 28, 2011)

Dennis461 said:


> I'm confused...if demand is going down, why are prices going up?
> Surely there is an overabundance of boxcars somewhere?


1. Inflation. Cumulative inflation from 1970 to today is about 500%, so a $5 boxcar from 1970 should be about $25-$30 today.

2. Increased detail, fidelity and complexity. You can't compare ugly 1970s tooling with a single piece body and clunky-cast on details to moden models with much finer tooling and detail, and dozens of separately applied parts.


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## Mr.Buchholz (Dec 30, 2011)

Based on what I've seen personally, this hobby is far from it's death knell. Yes, there are plenty of old guys out there running trains (I believe they are still the majority in this hobby), but there are also people in my age demographic (late 30's) who enjoy it as well.

Add to the fact that every year at the model trains shows I see more and more kids and young adults being fascinated, leads me to believe that model trains will never die. While I'm not completely thrilled with the amount of technology starting to emerge in model trains (cell phone apps to run trains!), I do believe that it's something everyone appreciates in some form or another.

If anything, the hobby brings in the more creative people in society that have the will to model things and express their own level of detail and whatnot. The only barrier to the hobby (that keeps getting bigger) are the prices. I can almost guarantee that more kids would get into trains if they weren't so damn expensive.

I started my current railroad back in 2011, and prices were significantly lower in that short time! There really is no need to gouge the audience that the train companies are trying to pick up. It kind of works in reverse for what they should be doing.

Oh well.

-J.


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## Oldnewchoo (Aug 31, 2018)

Well I lost interest in almost everything except girls for quite awhile. Even hunting, fishing and trapping took a backseat. I saw a train under a buddies' family Christmas tree and it came back into my life. Slowly, but it did. Started with a set in West Germany, some bits and pieces and then a broken up set at a yard sale in Georgia and expanded from there. So it may falter a bit but I think there will always be a patch of fits and ups and downs. I believe that the largest participants will be older f--ts like me and youngsters like my kids were and who are busy making a living and a life right now. Watch the eyes of the 20-40 year Olds when they allow themselves to get lost watching a layout... The embers are still smoldering. Do i believe the hobby is in trouble? I believe the words, I think Ronald Reagan said, about freedom is only a generation away from extinction. That's why we get trains for our kids and grandkids, out of love for the hobby, but mostly out of love for our families and wanting to give them the chance to discover it.


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## ZenGardenRails (Jan 22, 2019)

I think miniatures and modeling arts in general are actually on the rise. Like a previous poster mentioned... Check out wargaming communities, specifically Warhammer from games workshop. They are a growing billion dollar company that ships miniatures and models unconstructed and unpainted... There is a massive community around this game that mirrors model railroading in many ways except it also introduces interactive gaming with a modular layout. I have done a tone of commissions for wargamers looking for scatter terrain and ruined buildings.

The sci-fi nature, post apocalyptic aesthetic, and fantasy elements may not resemble the model train layout that we are fond of but the skills and creativity are there, just redirected... There is a decent WW2 wargaming community that is more recognizeable to us behind games like boltaction. 

In Fact... I would say that this is where the exciting creatives are in the hobby right now... You guys want to see some impressive weathering? Check out what those kids are doing to their mechwarriors and battle machines. It's no boxcar, but it's all the more stunning.

They are less interested in large static layouts and more interested in impressive and small modular set pieces. On Reddit, modeltrains are a sister Community to the terrain building subreddit which mostly deals with wargaming. The amount of mini painting videos on YouTube pertaining to wargaming is astronomical... And the skill level of these kids is something to behold.

You want to see something that will really confuse you? Have the train manufacturers come out with a Sci-Fi related wargaming train and that thing will sell like crazy and everybody will wonder what the heck is going on... because world's will collide.

And here's an annectdote... I know a grandfather who came upon his grandson's fantasy gaming layout and thought he was doing a model train layout... After a long conversation he figured out what his grandson was doing and helped him incorperate ACTUAL functional minecarts to his terrain. That grandfather now plays a fantasy game and helps his grandson make modular terrain for his games. It's the dream honestly... Connecting with grandchildren like that.

There's an article right now 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...how-warhammer-took-over-gaming-games-workshop

While I think that we need to be careful throwing drug terms around in a time when a lot of people are dying, this article is pointing out what I'm talking about.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TerrainBuilding/

^^check this terrain building community out... A few of these are indistinguishable from model train scenery posts.


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## Eilif (Nov 6, 2017)

Here's something I stumbled across yesterday. A local model railroading club getting involved in local schools to get kids interested in railroading and teach them something at the same time.
http://www.garfieldcentral.org/youth-program/
Check out the pic at the bottom. Those kids break all the regular expectations about the age, race, gender, etc of our hobby. 
If more clubs did stuff like this, that could be the bright future of the hobby!


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## charter.pa (Apr 23, 2014)

I know it will be around for the next 15 years, at least. I'm 52 and don't plan to quit. as long as God keeps me ticking, I'll be tinkering. I stopped with the trains around 13 and got back in around 45. The oldest got married and that opened up a bedroom. Out with the carpet, paint the walls blue, board up the windows and up with the tables. Popa's playin now !!!! Dusted my old trains set up some track, filled the room with cedar smoke from my Dads old American Flyer New York Hudson pullin Flyers, Varney's and old Tyco's. The young one's love it. Just not their time yet to be involved. Some day that may change and they will want to get in even change it to their way of thinking.


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